Trump China policy

Looking at key advisers to Harris and Trump may help reveal differences in their approaches to China.

U.S. determination to stem China’s AI development will continue regardless of the incoming leadership, but a Democratic administration could be more effective in rallying international allies.

To the extent that there is a China debate, the focus has been largely misplaced.

It seems unlikely Trump 2.0 would upend security structures in the region. In trade and commerce, however, Trump's potential return has Asian officials and observers hugely worried. 

Three points of friction could emerge over policy toward North Korea, host-nation support, and China policy.

The Biden administration's restrictions can be said to have shifted from “small yard, high fence” to “large yard, low fence.”

While there are important similarities between the Biden and Trump approaches toward China, there are also stark and meaningful differences.

For the Chinese strategic community, there’s no perception of Biden or Trump being better for China; it’s a matter of who is less detrimental.

Rhetorically, the two presidential candidates hit many of the same notes. But in practice they have approached competition with China very differently.

Even if Trump could somehow weather the economic repercussions of another trade war, the broader political consequences for the Republican Party would likely be insurmountable.

Looking ahead to a potential 2024 presidential match-up and the implications for U.S. China policy.